The Edge Letter · Prediction Markets
The Markets Desk
The only independent, publicly scored prediction-market desk — Polymarket and Kalshi, priced in cents, graded in public.
Briefings
#11 · 2026-11-03Ten to TwoSeason edition No. 11, the grade issue. The Fed held 10–2 and the October call grades as a hit at the number logged on Oct 14 — the desk's first Fed win against the market. Then the model the desk wrote before it knew the answer is run on the record, and it prices December below a 72.5¢ market. The desk underwrites it, prints the analyst's own doubts about the model beside it, and pre-registers what would change its mind.#10 · 2026-10-23Branch CSeason edition No. 10, the pre-meeting issue. The chair's last words before the blackout graded zero on the pre-registered hinge and took fifteen points out of the contract anyway; both falsifiers held; every inflation print since the log ran hot, and the market fell to 7.5¢ on a day that had nothing to do with the committee. The record number grades Wednesday at 2:00pm.#9 · 2026-10-14The Off-RampSeason edition No. 9, the fresh underwriting. The minutes have been read, the rebuilt model has a name for what went wrong, and the desk's third Fed call sits — again — on the dovish side of the market. Every instrument it needs to be proven wrong is printed in advance.#8 · 2026-09-19Twelve to NothingSeason edition No. 8, the grade. The Fed hiked — unanimously — and the desk's flagship call closes exactly as its pre-written note said it would: the entry market was right, the desk's biggest divergence was wrong, and both truths print in the same font.#7 · 2026-09-15Board LockedSeason edition No. 7, FOMC eve. The hinge executed itself, the market ran past the desk's number, and both versions of tomorrow's 2:01pm note are printed tonight — so the grade needs no judgment at all.#6 · 2026-09-08The HingeSeason edition No. 6. Eight days to the grade: the payrolls bar confirmed, the July jobs shock turned out to be a phantom, a governor made Friday's inflation print the whole ballgame — and the desk pre-commits, in numbers, what it does on each side of it.#5 · 2026-09-01Crossing the MarketSeason edition No. 5. The chair published a hiking standard, the desk's firewall falsifier fired, and the rebuilt number lands above the market for the first time in the desk's history — with the entry-day reckoning written before the grade.#4 · 2026-08-26The Fired SwitchSeason edition No. 4. The desk's pre-registered kill bar tripped this morning on a print the street shrugged at — and the desk honored it anyway, in public, with the arithmetic shown.#3 · 2026-08-23The Armed ConditionalSeason edition No. 3. The minutes contained the most hawkish sentence of the cycle, the market ignored it — and the desk raised its own number anyway, for a reason it would rather explain than hide.#2 · 2026-08-18The Time CapsuleSeason edition No. 2. Tomorrow's Fed minutes are a document from July 28 — and everything that mattered happened in August. The desk pre-registers exactly what to look for at 2:01pm, and what it will and won't do about it.#1 · 2026-08-14Thirteen Points LeftSeason edition No. 1. The September hike market has fallen from 56.5¢ to 25¢ since we logged this call — and the desk is printing the exact jobs number that would prove it wrong, twelve days before the grade.
